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Six in 10 Australian independent media agencies are forecasting flat or stronger advertising expenditure in FY27, defying the headwinds facing the sector, according to the latest Independent Media Agencies Australia (IMAA) research.
The optimism is backed up by solid year-on-year growth across the sector, with 70 per cent of IMAA member agencies now billing more than $11 million annually in FY26, compared to 61 per cent in FY25.
The annual Indie Census released by the IMAA today reveals that 61 per cent of members predict advertising expenditure will flatten or increase in the next financial year, with 30 per cent of agencies predicting spend will rise by up to 10 per cent to more than 30 per cent in the next financial year.
The optimism is set against recent challenges for the sector led by Guideline SMI data that showed Australia’s media agency market posted a 5.2 per cent fall in March advertising bookings compared to a year earlier and the MFA Census report released earlier this year that showed Australia’s media agencies suffered a 5.1 per cent fall in staff in September last year.
Independent agencies surveyed by IMAA forecast the top five media channels for ad spend in FY27 will be BVOD/CTV, digital video, social, search and podcasts, with growth of up to 25 per cent or more expected.
Seven in 10 agencies are expecting podcasts to grow by up to 25 per cent, while 60 per cent believe BVOD/CTV and programmatic out-of-home will grow at the same rate.
Digital radio and traditional out-of-home are also having a resurgence, with more than half expecting the channels to grow by up to 25 per cent in the coming year.
“Our latest Indie Census captures frontline perspectives from those making planning, investment and platform decisions every day, providing a trusted source of intelligence for our members and media partners," says IMAA CEO Sam Buchanan.
"The Census shows a dynamic independent media agency sector, underpinned by solid growth and optimism about the next financial year.
"Despite the ongoing cost-of-living crisis, local and global uncertainty and significant agency consolidation and job cuts in the broader advertising industry, our members remain positive about what’s to come in the next 12 months.
"It’s incredible to see that nearly 70 per cent of our members are now billing more than $11 million annually, which is demonstrative of the significant and growing appetite by clients for indie agencies nationally."
According to the IMAA survey, digital remains the primary channel for marketing, with display, social and search commanding the greatest share of spend allocation, followed by classic, transit and programmatic out-of-home, BVOD/CTV digital video and audio (radio, digital radio and podcasts).
However, platform measurement and linking media spend to business outcomes on each platform is identified as "very" or "somewhat" important by almost 92 per cent of agencies.
The Census also reveals that AI is seen as both the largest growth opportunity and the biggest challenge for independent media agencies as they head into the new financial year.
AI-assisted creative and media optimisation is reported as the biggest incremental growth opportunity for agencies.
More than a third of agencies say that adopting and integrating AI and generative AI into their workflows will be the biggest challenge in the coming months, naming data privacy and compliance concerns as the biggest barrier to increasing the use of AI in media planning and buying, along with the lack of skilled talent or internal expertise and unclear or unproven ROI.
The Census found that independent agencies also remain committed to hiring the next generation of industry talent.
Almost 40 per cent of agencies are keen to hire staff with up to three years’ industry experience, and a similar number sought three to seven years’ experience.
Most agencies agree that communication and client management are the biggest capability gaps in early media careers, followed by critical thinking and problem solving.
“Our annual Indie Census findings continue to help shape the advocacy, initiatives and support delivered by the IMAA, ensuring our programs, partnerships and resources remain aligned with the sector’s evolving needs," says Buchanan.
"This year, we’ll be doubling down on our efforts to support our members as they navigate the AI transition and its impact on everything from day-to-day operations to planning and buying.”
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